4 Hour chart as below with projection of waves but a good idea is to look on trading day set up prior confirmation, like using moving averages.Cycle lines give a good idea of when would it end and begin.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Weekly wrap up EU Elliott waves
Buying pressure is not over while bearish continuation may just behind a few days.
4 Hour chart as below with projection of waves but a good idea is to look on trading day set up prior confirmation, like using moving averages.Cycle lines give a good idea of when would it end and begin.
4 Hour chart as below with projection of waves but a good idea is to look on trading day set up prior confirmation, like using moving averages.Cycle lines give a good idea of when would it end and begin.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Sunday, May 29, 2011
EU 4H chart weekly wrap up
4H time frame with best retracement for 4 ( wave 3 at 149.xx) and alternate count for (C) at 149.xx
But overall conclusion is the next wave is down on next trading day possibly after 143.35 or just above 143.43
But overall conclusion is the next wave is down on next trading day possibly after 143.35 or just above 143.43
Friday, May 27, 2011
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Euro Dollar 138.50 in view
A recount in 4H chart as below, even daily chart is still valid, looking for more down move today.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Euro Dollar Daily Chart
This week despite 800 pips down from top 149.xx I am still with bullish daily trend. At the moment the bullish daily count reach their important junction to invalidate the count. Even breaking the classic trendline for a continuation of bullish as many noted. I still accept that wave 4 could retraced to the level of extreme of wave iv ( one lesser degree, and in this case as the wave 3 was in extension I take wave (iv) extreme as acceptable level).
To invalidate the count of 3 wave 4 should not reach the extreme of wave 1 which at 138.45. And if the converging move a few days ago was a leading diagonal, most likely the retracement is deep and reach 0.786% or near 1.4115 ( last low was 1.4130.) After that a wave iii will bring higher than 140.43 and make this probability to almost truth.
Even not so genius to be bullish at this time, I still with the count until proven otherwise. Stay flexible, and if the move break the low 140.45 an alternate count will be preferable.
Daily chart reviewed as below:
A more zoom to 4H chart is here,
A break of the blue trend line most probably invalidate the count.
Best regards,
Azamli Nawi aka exsanova salvatore dondouva d'angelo.
To invalidate the count of 3 wave 4 should not reach the extreme of wave 1 which at 138.45. And if the converging move a few days ago was a leading diagonal, most likely the retracement is deep and reach 0.786% or near 1.4115 ( last low was 1.4130.) After that a wave iii will bring higher than 140.43 and make this probability to almost truth.
Even not so genius to be bullish at this time, I still with the count until proven otherwise. Stay flexible, and if the move break the low 140.45 an alternate count will be preferable.
Daily chart reviewed as below:
A more zoom to 4H chart is here,
A break of the blue trend line most probably invalidate the count.
Best regards,
Azamli Nawi aka exsanova salvatore dondouva d'angelo.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Diagonal Live in Two World
Diagonals are special type of motive waves which however are not impulses. Subdivided in two categories which are Leading diagonal and Ending diagonal. As suggested by the name one is a lead of a new trend and the other is an end of the trend. Also called type 1 or type 2 which I prefer the previous categorical name which suggest the function of each.
Leading diagonal or many call it a wedge is a "narrowing of prices" till if we connecting between waves a wedge will be seen. Some people said it was not Elliot that describe the pattern but Frost and Prechter so it is included only in "modern" Elliott wave theory.
Slowing of prices occur as wave 3 and 5 develop or in the other words the price movement occur fastest in wave 1, slow in wave 3 and slowest in wave 5. However complying to the Elliott wave rule, the wave 3 wouldn't be the shortest wave.
Leading diagonal have 5-3-5-3-5 subwaves while the ending diagonal have 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves. The rules are narrowing of prices which can be seen as two converging lines ( a wedge). The wave 4 OFTEN overlap with wave 1, It occur as part of motive wave 1 or wave A of a zigzag in places.
Back to Euro/Dollar moves from 140.45 to 143.36. Generally it looks like an OVERLAPPING waves so this can be a CORRECTION from 800 pips down from 149.xx or a DIAGONAL ?
If it is a leading diagonal so it support the start of wave 5 in my previous daily count which noted that 149.xx was a wave 3. If it is a corrective so we are going to see more move down from breaking the lower lines so to suggest that 140.45 to 143.36 is a Triangle.
Looking deeper the inside of subwaves will unlock the story behind all this mystery but as ALWAYS a look deeper will suggest more complicated discussion and at last a mystery is always unpredicted till it reveal itself.
What a possibly see now could be a leading diagonal, so after the retracement breaking the lower trendline, a move up till confirmatory above (i). If it is a corrective triangle after a break of the lower trendline, a move down further will occur below 140.45.
The safe side is to wait and see ( a safe play mean no trade). But most of us won't wait and see because we are energetic people and risk taker. So Good Luck!
Re-included 1H chart of euro dollar with a suggested Leading Diagonal ? OR NO.
Leading diagonal or many call it a wedge is a "narrowing of prices" till if we connecting between waves a wedge will be seen. Some people said it was not Elliot that describe the pattern but Frost and Prechter so it is included only in "modern" Elliott wave theory.
Slowing of prices occur as wave 3 and 5 develop or in the other words the price movement occur fastest in wave 1, slow in wave 3 and slowest in wave 5. However complying to the Elliott wave rule, the wave 3 wouldn't be the shortest wave.
Leading diagonal have 5-3-5-3-5 subwaves while the ending diagonal have 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves. The rules are narrowing of prices which can be seen as two converging lines ( a wedge). The wave 4 OFTEN overlap with wave 1, It occur as part of motive wave 1 or wave A of a zigzag in places.
Back to Euro/Dollar moves from 140.45 to 143.36. Generally it looks like an OVERLAPPING waves so this can be a CORRECTION from 800 pips down from 149.xx or a DIAGONAL ?
If it is a leading diagonal so it support the start of wave 5 in my previous daily count which noted that 149.xx was a wave 3. If it is a corrective so we are going to see more move down from breaking the lower lines so to suggest that 140.45 to 143.36 is a Triangle.
Looking deeper the inside of subwaves will unlock the story behind all this mystery but as ALWAYS a look deeper will suggest more complicated discussion and at last a mystery is always unpredicted till it reveal itself.
What a possibly see now could be a leading diagonal, so after the retracement breaking the lower trendline, a move up till confirmatory above (i). If it is a corrective triangle after a break of the lower trendline, a move down further will occur below 140.45.
The safe side is to wait and see ( a safe play mean no trade). But most of us won't wait and see because we are energetic people and risk taker. So Good Luck!
Re-included 1H chart of euro dollar with a suggested Leading Diagonal ? OR NO.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Last Bull Elliott Waves Counts for Euro/USD
This was my initial count for euro/dollar on "last" calls for waves 5.
At current time the EU is at wave (i) in diagonal and will retrace for (ii) before first confirmatory of bull run to 1.5/1.6 (not worked out yet).The (C) substructures was in 3-3-3-3-3 or ending diagonal.
However this has become my alternate count in previous days when moves from 1.49 looks so dramatic. But I still believe this count will only show in times. 1.49 was labelled as 3 and we in wave 4 or (A)/(B)(/C) in this 1H chart.
At current time the EU is at wave (i) in diagonal and will retrace for (ii) before first confirmatory of bull run to 1.5/1.6 (not worked out yet).The (C) substructures was in 3-3-3-3-3 or ending diagonal.
However this has become my alternate count in previous days when moves from 1.49 looks so dramatic. But I still believe this count will only show in times. 1.49 was labelled as 3 and we in wave 4 or (A)/(B)(/C) in this 1H chart.
Daily Time frame
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Euro/Usd Elliott waves orthodox bottom
Here is my current Elliott waves count on euro/usd currency on lower time frame 1 hour.
What I have seen was a motive move from top 149.27 toward last low 140.66.
All the down moves possibly has reach their low at 140.xx and ready for a corrective move. The third wave was about 462% fibo extension from wave one relative to wave two. What is could be an interesting charting is the running wave b correction that possibly made an orthodox bottom. Anyway on the next trading day we would be certain whether the move from 1.4339 currently charted as (wave a) to low 140.66 will be in three subwave or five subwave before I can make a conclussion. From 1h chart we can see a divergence built up from 1.4509 to currently charted wave five or even orthodox low wave b.
It is interesting to see a corrective move in the next trading day towards my predictive value of 1.44xx. If hovewer the down move is beyond 1.4000 before a predictive correction wave we can conclude that the wave 1 is yet not completed and count to be reviewed.
Expanded flat or also called irregular flat is a common type of flat where the wave b is extended and goes beyond the previous impulsive wave. The untold story behind this is a market is likely to go toward direction of wave b. After correction of wave c, often a strong impulsive wave of the next degree will take place.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Elliott wave EU Forex
Chart 1H,
Recount done (Elliott waves) with the most satisfactory corrective counts on iv. Now I believe the EU will see 149.55 today.
I will comment on expanding triangle on corrective iv later.
The motive v may be developing as motive diagonal.
Corrective waves as almost it is leaving us the count behind and being realised when we see another motive developing. Good Luck.
Recount done (Elliott waves) with the most satisfactory corrective counts on iv. Now I believe the EU will see 149.55 today.
I will comment on expanding triangle on corrective iv later.
The motive v may be developing as motive diagonal.
Corrective waves as almost it is leaving us the count behind and being realised when we see another motive developing. Good Luck.
Recently I talked about flat and double triple three as corrective Elliot waves. Now as I believe the past wave iv developed into triangle I will say something about the pattern. As we know correctives waves in Elliott are either zig-zag, Flat, triangle and double or triple three. As contrary as zig-zag, triangle cause a sideway move.
The subwaves are 3-3-3-3-3 a-b-c-d-e and a triangle can be seen when connecting a line a-c and b-d. Wave e can either undershoot or more likely overshoot the a-c line. Triangle can be divided into two character either contracting or expanding. Contracting triangle is much common but I would like to say about expanding triangle now as we can learn from life example. Expanding triangle is also called reverse symmetrical triangle with the top rising and the bottom declining. As other triangle it occur in wave 4, wave B in ABC and as a final wave in double/triple three. Expanding triangle only the only subtypes as compare to contracting triangle which are symmetrical,ascending or descending by connecting the a-c line and b-d line.
From my experience expanding triangle occur when seller and buyer getting stronger on every moment into triangle till one win the battle. But as occur at the final retracement waves, the one who win will then take the winning and done. As if occur in wave 4, the winning will take to wave 5 but then the wave retraced for ABC in which the C is almost at the level or beyond the e wave.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Double and triple three correction Elliott waves.
In the recent post I talked about Flat correction as one of Elliott wave pattern.
Double and triple three are another sideway correction which mean a two or three corrective waves. So a double three can be a flat follow by another flat by an x wave. Triple three similarly can be a flat, an x, a flat followed by another flat by another x wave.
An abc--x--abc commonly written as (w)-(x)-(y) while abc--x--abc--x--abc can better be understood as (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z).
As alternation is one of important figure in Elliott waves, more commonly a double three could be a flat followed by another type of correction such as triangle. A flat followed by a zig zag is another more common double three.
Doubling or tripling a three is a nature way to reach the retracement goal in a sideway appearance. The first three often not adequate for a better ratio retracement so it is way for a more justified level. This also could be a nature way the extend the time of corrective process so everything like a channel line or a better" looked" waves.
Please not that a triangle if a part of the three, the triangle is only at the final part of the three.
Double and triple three are another sideway correction which mean a two or three corrective waves. So a double three can be a flat follow by another flat by an x wave. Triple three similarly can be a flat, an x, a flat followed by another flat by another x wave.
An abc--x--abc commonly written as (w)-(x)-(y) while abc--x--abc--x--abc can better be understood as (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z).
As alternation is one of important figure in Elliott waves, more commonly a double three could be a flat followed by another type of correction such as triangle. A flat followed by a zig zag is another more common double three.
Doubling or tripling a three is a nature way to reach the retracement goal in a sideway appearance. The first three often not adequate for a better ratio retracement so it is way for a more justified level. This also could be a nature way the extend the time of corrective process so everything like a channel line or a better" looked" waves.
Please not that a triangle if a part of the three, the triangle is only at the final part of the three.
Monday, May 2, 2011
EU Elliott waves
4H chart as general view of my Elliott waves counting.
Now I am counting as wave 3 or wave v to be completed or confirmed. If the level of 1.4700 hold I believe that wave v or 3 is yet to be achieved. However if 1.4636 is clearly broken that a level of v or 3 has been achieved.
Trade Forex with clear mind, no expectation and full of achievement. Good Luck!
Now I am counting as wave 3 or wave v to be completed or confirmed. If the level of 1.4700 hold I believe that wave v or 3 is yet to be achieved. However if 1.4636 is clearly broken that a level of v or 3 has been achieved.
EU Elliott waves corrective pattern.(Flat)
I have seen a complete wave v in a possibly last leg of C or 3 of C. (See daily counts.)
The wave iv was a flat abc correction in which b almost to the level of iii and later down toward FE 100% AB.The level of c was just about the level of a. One thing to remember is that a combination of correction may still develop if the level of wave iv retracement is not yet achieved.
This is good learning example of flat corrective Elliott waves. Let I remind the flat correction is a common occurrence which show a sideway direction. The traders almost always complain of which direction was that really was and the trading system which use a trend as a set up guide on that time frame will almost losing breath.
Flat correction is a very common corrective pattern abc in which wave a and b are corrective (3 subwaves) and c is impulsive. Wave b will retrace more than 61.8% of wave a, and often show a complete retracement to the end of previous impulsive wave ( in this case wave iii). Wave c shouldn't go beyond wave a and normally at least equal to wave a.
Most FLAT occur in wave B, though quite common in wave 4 and 2.
The wave iv was a flat abc correction in which b almost to the level of iii and later down toward FE 100% AB.The level of c was just about the level of a. One thing to remember is that a combination of correction may still develop if the level of wave iv retracement is not yet achieved.
This is good learning example of flat corrective Elliott waves. Let I remind the flat correction is a common occurrence which show a sideway direction. The traders almost always complain of which direction was that really was and the trading system which use a trend as a set up guide on that time frame will almost losing breath.
Flat correction is a very common corrective pattern abc in which wave a and b are corrective (3 subwaves) and c is impulsive. Wave b will retrace more than 61.8% of wave a, and often show a complete retracement to the end of previous impulsive wave ( in this case wave iii). Wave c shouldn't go beyond wave a and normally at least equal to wave a.
Most FLAT occur in wave B, though quite common in wave 4 and 2.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
EU Elliott waves 1H chart
1 H chart for EU Elliott waves counts on asia open before NY.
A retracement is justified to the level of 4700 or 4766. After this retracement could be another swing up to 4900 level as previously suggested. But a good practice is to see the reaction or trader psychology as suggested by candle formation on the level bofore a decision.
Good luck on forex trading!
A retracement is justified to the level of 4700 or 4766. After this retracement could be another swing up to 4900 level as previously suggested. But a good practice is to see the reaction or trader psychology as suggested by candle formation on the level bofore a decision.
Good luck on forex trading!
EU Forex Elliott Waves
A daily time frame is chosen for a general view for next new trading week in May 2011.
My preferred Elliott waves counts from June 2010 is (A) -(B)-(C) in which (C) yet to be completed. The channel in (C) is a linear regression channel for purpose of wave equality in that degree.
In the (C) channel my preferred count is again 1-2-3-4-5 waves as opposed to alternate count A-B-C. The daily RSI 14 is entering 72 level in which show a tight room but to achieved 149.xx for a count of wave 3(or C). The candle also has entered the upper standard deviation line that could say a down move is ready for a correction.
I believe that the minute retracement will occur for a lesser degree count ( 147.xx) before 3 or C is achieved in early days in first week of May. However if 146.30 is broken the count of 3 or C has already achieved at top of Friday trading day. Forex is a risky trade decision and this is my personal view only.
My preferred Elliott waves counts from June 2010 is (A) -(B)-(C) in which (C) yet to be completed. The channel in (C) is a linear regression channel for purpose of wave equality in that degree.
In the (C) channel my preferred count is again 1-2-3-4-5 waves as opposed to alternate count A-B-C. The daily RSI 14 is entering 72 level in which show a tight room but to achieved 149.xx for a count of wave 3(or C). The candle also has entered the upper standard deviation line that could say a down move is ready for a correction.
I believe that the minute retracement will occur for a lesser degree count ( 147.xx) before 3 or C is achieved in early days in first week of May. However if 146.30 is broken the count of 3 or C has already achieved at top of Friday trading day. Forex is a risky trade decision and this is my personal view only.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Forex Elliott Waves Introduction.
Foreign exchange (FOREX) market is known as over the counter financial market for currency trading and has a huge trading volume. There are many trading systems and I am aware of all development since many years ago but today I am using Elliott waves theory for describing past moves and prediction what will be the next.
The Elliott Waves is a way of people behavior in area involving primitive judgment including in financial decision. It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific and measurable patterns.
The financial market including Forex does not react to outside event consistently but to our inside primitive judgment in area of unforeseeable event. Using Elliott waves is an exercise probability and with the knowledge of waves pattern we are likely to expect what will be the next moves.
Elliott waves pattern consists of “impulsive waves” and “corrective waves.” An impulsive wave is composed of five subwaves. It moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave is divided into three subwaves. It moves against the trend of the next larger size.
They would be a mistakes here and there but by exercises I am looking for a better trade entry and exit using the Elliott waves principle as a major government in forex decisions.
Thank you,
Azamli Nawi
MD.
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